20 Sep What is trending in business: the most important business story of the next two months

Sometimes I feel very disconnected to the world of business, as it relates to the stock exchanges. This weekend I read just how close we are to unparalleled heights on both the TSX and the NYSX. If that is so, how can it happen while oil and gas lags and the exploration world is still mired in doom and gloom?

In my day-to- day work in Vancouver, my public company portfolio touches mostly on exploration mining. There is an element of excitement in the market place as people feel like we may be approaching a new dawn. People are generally pleased – even excited – that gold has continued to ride over $1,300USD (as I write this it is at $1,350USD or over $1,700CDN). I was expecting it to take its usual summer drop and hope to see it find new highs now that fall has arrived.

The city of Vancouver has waited a long time to feel some excitement in the exploration market and it will truly create a strong response should we see my expected growth.  Yet, there still hangs a dark grey cloud over everything this fall, primarily because of the uncertainty of the election taking place in our neighbour’s yard (I almost spelled that neighbor in deference to it being their yard, but I could just imagine the outrage). We have an amazing election race going on south of the border and its impact is overwhelming. The markets will be very upset with the instability of a Trump surge, since he has proved to be unpredictable and threatens the status quo, something reviled by stable businesses. Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton seems to be the least trusted candidate in the Democratic Party’s history. While she should be walking away with the election and holding a significant lead in the polls, we still see an uncertain result to the campaign…

By the time this is published, we will have had the first forum between the two candidates and I will be watching for the, “You could have said no!” moment of Mulroney versus Turner. (I offer applause to anyone who remembers that one!).

Around me I see people wary, sick and tired of the whole process. Many people have lost interest and cannot be bothered to engage. I can tell you that my parents watch the whole show with far more interest than when it is a Canadian election. My father used to say American politics has more impact on our lives than Canadian (and he may be right).

I will stay glued to the coverage and continue talking to a friend just down the hall – a friend who supports Mr. Trump just as much as I support his opponent. Either way, the campaign will be the most important business story of the next two months.

This story has wandered from exploration mining to the American election campaign and now my editor wants me to tie it up by bringing it back to exploration mining. She is right, of course, that it should come back to the opening point. To her I say, “Good luck!” as the meandering of my mind is not always that clear. One thing that is clear is the result of this election is an uncertainty, which is weighing down the business cycle. The business community seeks certainty and US politics is not offering much.